Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 2.748206 3.775274 5.246167 7.586003 1.137468e+01 1.758208e+01 29.270486
2025-03-30 1.778104 2.811203 4.600056 8.194504 1.604093e+01 3.489345e+01 95.430928
2025-04-06 1.144611 1.998063 3.696560 7.804087 1.945429e+01 6.057905e+01 317.992544
2025-04-13 0.759942 1.429273 2.913432 7.096826 2.212846e+01 1.012178e+02 1340.137808
2025-04-20 0.573927 1.163662 2.626498 7.506865 3.083430e+01 2.479729e+02 29825.601524
2025-04-27 0.464555 1.013773 2.539241 8.639807 4.971701e+01 9.694689e+02 NaN
2025-05-04 0.386297 0.901899 2.495904 10.153667 8.664764e+01 7.624161e+03 NaN
2025-05-11 0.315103 0.775315 2.325097 11.024571 1.384896e+02 1.750244e+05 NaN
2025-05-18 0.248811 0.633362 2.003650 10.571935 1.797541e+02 1.036005e+08 NaN
2025-05-25 0.195861 0.510338 1.675875 9.552167 2.062271e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.167720 0.453612 1.583047 10.281611 3.482012e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.144917 0.405163 1.494509 10.991918 6.112949e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.126850 0.367906 1.444861 12.315807 1.383185e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.111211 0.333109 1.383988 13.559095 3.479974e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.094077 0.286433 1.225111 12.929861 5.668063e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.079130 0.243252 1.058509 11.686784 7.397033e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.070596 0.222242 1.009693 12.516926 2.511960e+04 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.065034 0.211095 1.014807 14.746821 3.701390e+05 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.060474 0.202423 1.031231 17.800285 1.450356e+11 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.055162 0.188619 1.001031 19.627389 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.048883 0.168529 0.908801 18.754252 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-17 0.042890 0.148131 0.801600 16.730248 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-24 0.039639 0.139317 0.780222 18.237173 NaN NaN NaN